Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Timing: Crimean peninsula

So far, everyone is complaining about how Obama's sanctions (20 Russians can't go to USA) is a joke/weak response to the "invasion" of the Crimean peninsula. Anyone else curious about the timing of this invasion? Russia just hosted the Olympics (which helped its "status" in the international community.) And this is an election year in America. Remember the gaffe where Obama was caught whispering to Putin, that Obama will have "more flexibility" after the election? --- Putin is a (relatively) smart cookie. If he wants to expand Russian territory, the Crimean peninsula is the best place to start. And now would be the time to do it. --- Would a Crimean war help or hurt Democrats? People support their president in war time, so maybe Obama's Democratic party might pick up some votes this 2014 election (ending the Congressional deadlock?) Or maybe people want a conservative Republican strong daddy figure so will vote Republican? --- I suspect Putin prefers dealing with the "weak/diplomatic" Obama over the "rash/war hawk" McCain. (Anyone else wondering if McCain will run for President in 2016?) I also suspect Obama is currently trying to put together a "multinational" sanction team. The current "joke/weak response" is all Obama wants to do just as USA. If we give him some time, he might be able to get all of Europe/Asia to sanction Russia too. But would that take too long (once Crimea joins Russian, how hard will it be to get it back to Ukraine?) --- Finally, if the majority of voting Crimeans want to join Russia, what are we trying to stop them? (Okay, the 96% figure is suspicious, but I'd guess 51% of Crimeans really would prefer Russia.) I say, we tell Crimea/Russia - you guys can do what you want, but you have to pay 10Billion to Ukraine, becuase they've been "investing" their energy/banking into Crimea, so if you want to separate, you have to pay back what they have been giving you. Then Ukraine can use that 10 billion to build up its military, and can worry less about Russia expanding further (into places where it might not be wanted.)

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